Beyond this Ceremony of Putin's Delhi Visit: An Indo-Russian Bond That Has Diminished.

This rhetoric and imagery from the Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India spoke of a robust two-way relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a embrace, and the leaders took a car journey, mirroring a familiar diplomatic gesture. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and described the India-Russia bond as a "guiding star", founded on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's tenth trip to India during his 25-year tenure and his 20th encounter with Modi since the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.

A Chasm Between Symbolism and Substance

Yet, a noticeable gap exists between the symbolism and the substance of this relationship. While Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are actually buying less Russian oil because of international tariffs and sanctions. The two nations concluded numerous memorandums of understanding in areas like migration, health, food security, naval cooperation, and academic collaboration. However, expected revelations on major defence contracts did not happen. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a situation fueled by delays in shipments of equipment and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.

A Partnership Losing Strategic Weight

This all points to that the India-Russia relationship no longer holds the same strategic weight it previously did. During the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained preferential barter arrangements and market access to the USSR and its satellite states. This unique alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a conflict with Pakistan during which Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both countries have attempted to preserve a semblance of this close tie through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the reality is that their engagement does not have the former significance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened ties with the Western world.

Diversification and Underlying Tensions

New Delhi is unlikely to sever its crucial relationship with Moscow. Yet, as Western pressure increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to diversify the relationship into other sectors. On Putin's visit, they unveiled an joint economic program lasting until 2030, aiming to make their ties "broader, balanced and sustainable". This includes improving market access for Indian goods to address a trade deficit strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two covers several strategically important fields – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and food security.

Sentimental Affinity and Seen Reliability

At an sentimental level, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, especially among senior cohorts of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal role during the Cold War. This has translated into a degree of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid recent frictions between India and the US, where American officials have made critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a more reliable ally.

The key difficulty, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration released during Putin's visit made no reference to Ukraine, even though it ironically referred to the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted statement that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt actions regarding the war have been minimal.

Squaring the Circle: India's Foreign Policy Tightrope

This situation highlights the underlying contradictions in India's foreign policy. The nation is poised to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, after a similar pact with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology initiative. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to boost cultural exchanges between India and Russia.

How can India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be banking that current talks will succeed, resulting in a cessation of hostilities and the elimination of a major thorn in its relations with the West. However, should a settlement is achieved, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's independence and borders, scrutiny of the India-Russia alliance will undoubtedly continue in Western capitals.