🔗 Share this article

For a brief period, Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "severe ramifications" in August in case Russia's president continued blocking truce discussions, the former president finally enacted substantial sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to fund his war effort in the region.

But, via his latest 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Military Action

This proposal would in practice reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in danger. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal actually compromise that very sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business past, the former president seems to consider the war as a basic territorial dispute, like handing Russia a section of Ukraine's land will please the ruler. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not only about occupying a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated territory in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the democratic government that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

While keeping in position the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole Donetsk region. Aside from favoring Russia with area that its troops have been failed to seize in over a lengthy period of warfare, this concession would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely compromised.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that are a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, leaving Putin a clear path to Kyiv should he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Defense Restrictions

Furthermore, in a action that would enable future conflict simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate the nation to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal sets no such limits on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to portray the nation's chosen by the people administration as extremists, the plan states: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this element, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the initiative has the Russian Federation commit not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in legislation its position of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken comparable agreements in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a handback of seized land in the region to Kyiv – for what reason should we trust Putin now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. Although the initiative threatens a "immediate coordinated armed reaction" if Russia restart its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics range from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only block the nation Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from positioning forces on the nation's land, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened troops, re-equipping, and reinvading.

International Reaction

An additional side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an assault endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. Yet different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's best deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to react militarily to Russia's hostilities, an action they have {not