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Amid the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.