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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."