Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. But offering any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”