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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles release nearly 5x more global warming emissions than official data show, as per a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Lab and Actual CO2 Output

Statistics shows that PHEVs release just one-fifth lower CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel vehicles, according to analysis carried out by a advocacy organization. That contrasts sharply with lab estimates, which suggested a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Researchers examined data from onboard fuel consumption meters of eight hundred thousand vehicles registered in the EU from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that actual CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times higher than official figures, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are increasing, while official emissions are falling,” said a lead analyst participating in the report. “That discrepancy is growing and creates a serious issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as much as gasoline cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Researchers attributed the majority of the gap to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers driven in electric mode relative to overall mileage. The team found that only a quarter of travel was done in EV mode, while official assumptions assumed 84%.

Additionally, when operating in electric mode, pollution levels were well above official projections. That happened because EV motors were not strong enough to function independently, resulting to combustion motors burning gasoline for almost a third of the travel completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed four large automaker companies to escape over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing adherence with EU average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs could spend about €500 extra per year in running costs than is assumed under laboratory conditions.

“The strong claims that manufacturers like to make about their PHEV vehicles are obviously way off the truth,” commented a transport analyst. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly improved than regular petrol and diesel cars in terms of fuel consumption, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid cars have recently been drawn again into political discussions as automakers have lobbied the European Union to relax CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the car industry and resistance from EU countries with large automotive manufacturing.

Some senior politicians have suggested plug-in hybrids as a potential “compromise” option to include in the legislation.

One independent energy economics specialist, who was not involved with the research, called the analysis a “very useful contribution” after a long period in which segments of the automotive sector claimed there was too little data to accurately evaluate real-world CO2 output.

“These findings demonstrate, without question, that the gap in lab and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is much, much larger than for gasoline or conventional vehicles,” they stated. “All regulatory adjustments regarding PHEVs should be implemented with utmost care and considering that evidence.”