Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.