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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.